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As Climate Change Worsens, Scientists Feel Increasing Pressure to Speak Out

At a recent conference, scientists debate how far they should go in expressing their concerns about the world's response to global warming.

Dec 29, 2011
James Hansen of NASA

Factors contributing to climate change are moving faster than predicted and pushing us toward planetary conditions unlike any humans have ever known—this was one of the salient themes to emerge from this month's meeting of the American Geophysical Union, the world's largest gathering of earth and space scientists. Some scientists think we've already crossed that boundary and are, as Jonathan Foley, director of the University of Minnesota Institute on the Environment, said, "in a very different world than we have ever seen before."

What scientists are now witnessing as the earth responds to increasing levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases presents many of them with a dilemma: How far should they go in expressing their concerns about how government and society are responding to climate change? This question is particularly charged given that efforts to undermine climate science have become part of the political debate on these issues.

Running through the meeting's scientific presentations were formal and informal discussions about the scientist's role in guiding society's response to climate change, including how to effectively communicate the certainties and uncertainties of the science—and how to respond to what Don Wuebbles, University of Illinois professor of atmospheric science and chair of the organization's Global Environmental Change committee, called the "confusionists."

After the meeting, InsideClimate News interviewed several leading climate scientists and a renowned science historian to get a sense of how they are navigating this difficult terrain. All of them have testified before Congress and several were contributing authors on the 2007 report of the Nobel Prize-winning Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), so all understand the challenges of working in the public spotlight.

When it comes to the certainties of climate science, all of them agree that the scientific literature has established definitively that rising atmospheric carbon dioxide levels have led to global warming and that anthropogenic fossil fuel burning is a major factor in this rise.

"The bottom line is that the climate system is telling us an internally and physically consistent story," said Benjamin Santer, an atmospheric scientist at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory who delivered the 2011 AGU Stephen Schneider Memorial lecture. "While there will always be sizable scientific uncertainties, there can be no reasonable debate about whether the planet is warming," or that fossil fuel burning is a prime contributing factor, said Santer, an IPCC report contributor, whose work linking climate change with anthropogenic factors has been attacked by climate change skeptics.

The scientists also agreed that—based on what's now being observed as the earth responds to high levels of atmospheric CO2 and other greenhouse gases—what constitutes a dangerous level of global warming is likely less than what models have anticipated. James Hansen of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies explained that scientists who are examining the fossil record for clues about dramatic ecosystem and climate shifts in previous geologic eras are finding evidence that current changes are happening faster than any comparable changes the earth has previously experienced.

"We will get a very different climate with an increase of 2 degrees Celsius, and that's what international organizations are setting as a goal," Hansen said. "A 2 degrees Celsius increase is actually a prescription for disaster."

Comments

The Games Goes On

It is hard to accept that we in one of the most advanced and "free" nation are sticking our heads in the sand and not only ignoring the dire warning of our top scientists but waging a campaign to discredit, attack and vile their character. Never mind the puiblic is being mislead by the very companies that are profitting the most in selling these dirty wasteful fuels. With these profits they in turn can buy the political machine, front groups to announce their claims that "Global Warming" is only "natural" and not caused by human emissions. Dr Hansen has been at the forefront for over 20 years now and even has written a book to layout the science and results of burning coal and oil. Future generations will be at a loss to way we did not act? Not the first time in human history whole societies were in denial.

If we had listened to Hansen

If we had listened to Hansen in 1988, New York wouldn't be underwater now.

Listen to Hansen.

Hansen did not predict that New York would be under water in 2012. The question in 1988 was what would it look like out the window in 40 years with doubled CO2. He was in Manhatten at the time and said the West side highway could be underwater. Need 16 more years, and ~160 ppm CO2 before judging how predictive he was.

Sounds like someopne lied to you. Are you an Anthony Watts fan?

As Climate Change Worsens?

Anyone who is interested can download the temperature data and plot it themsevles. There are three surface based data sets.  Those are HadCRUT3, NOAA Land & Oceans, and NASA GISS (i.e. Hansen).  All three are based primarily on the NCDC data.  HadCRUT3 and NOAA actually show a slight cooling trend since 2001 but not significant. GISS, based largely on the same data but with different "adjustments" shows significant warming.  In addition, there are two satellite based data records.  Those are UAH and RSS. They show a slight warming but not significant.  So Hansen's GISS is the only temperature record that shows any significant warming since 2001. 

Those of us who are skeptical of some of the claims being made by Hansen and his ilk don't deny that climate changes.  Climate has always changed. Speaking only for me, I became increasingly skeptical as I became increasingly aware of exagerations and misrepresentations. My background is in the sciences. That is not what scientists should be doing no matter how important they believe their "cause" to be. Hypotheses were being stated as facts. Speculation and modeling was being used as though it was empirical data.

If they can make a case for their crisis claims, I wish they would do it. Don't try to dismiss those of us who are skeptical by claiming the case has been made when it hasn't.   

See for yourself

I went to the NOAA site and just created this chart in Excel.  The data are combined land and ocean average annual temperature anomolies.  The anomolies are departures from the 20th century average.  Judge for yourself if they are going up or down.

Fluctuating global temperature

I'm always puzzled by the argument that a lack of global temprature rise over the last decade casts doubt on the claim that there is a rising long term temperature trend.  If you look at the temperatures over the last 100 years or so the planet is obviously warming. There have been decades where it has been fairly flat, even falling, but these are more than offset by periods of rapid rise.  That variability makes perfect sense to me as there are multiple short term decadal influences on temperature such as la nina/el nino cycles which affect heat transfer between atmosphere and ocean, and times when atmospheric aerosols from industrial activity have been high and had a cooling effect by reflecting sunlight back out into space (such as in mid century in Europe and North America, and currently in south and east Asia*).  It has been known since the 1800s that carbon dioxide absorbs radiant heat energy and any decent physics lab can demonstrate its atmospheric warming effect.  It would be quite surprising if our increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide by more than a third since the start of the industrial revolution were not warming the planet.  If carbon dioxide and other heat absorbing green house gasses are not the culprits, what is?  It cannot be changes in radiant energy arriving from the sun, as that has been flat or decreasing since around 1960.

*East Asian smog: http://www.the9billion.com/2011/11/14/thick-smog-over-eastern-china-stil...

Climate changing more rapidly then we anticpated

Hansen is totally correct. The climate is in the early stages of rapid change- and this is from C02 levels from 20 years ago- when they where around 360-ppm. This spring we will be around 397ppm- and this is in the pipeline-

Yet the far right and the GOP-  they intertwined- seem to think all is well. We cannot continue on this path much longer. It is already too late to prevent 450ppm and a 2 degree C rise from the PI level- we will now see at LEAST a 3 degree rise- perhaps 4 degrees- making life for future Americans very difficult.

 

Why Americans? I would

Why Americans? I would think the global south would experience the worst effects. 

Who to believe?

Does any one really believe that NASA scientists would publish information that's factually incorrect? They have numerous pages on their website dedicated to explaining why global warming is real, is happening now and is caused by our burning of fossil fuels. Scientists feel the need to speak out because they understand what will be the likely outcome of not heeding what the science tells them.

Google 'NASA climate change' or click on this link.

Quote: "The current warming trend is of particular significance because most of it is very likely human-induced and proceeding at a rate that is unprecedented in the past 1,300 years."

Not to Worry

The problem will solve itself -- just not in a nice way.

understatement

What an understatement! You are right though.

Huh?

said Santer, an IPCC report contributor, whose work linking climate change with anthropogenic factors has been attacked by climate change skeptics.

Well, DUH!

The reason he was attacked by skeptics is because he single handedly re-wrote the 1995 IPCC II Expert Approved Statements, which were:

“None of the studies cited above has shown clear evidence that we can attribute the observed [climate] changes to the specific cause of increases in greenhouse gases.”

“While some of the pattern-base discussed here have claimed detection of a significant climate change, no study to date has positively attributed all or part of climate change observed to man-made causes.”

“Any claims of positive detection and attribution of significant climate change are likely to remain controversial until uncertainties in the total natural variability of the climate system are reduced.”

“While none of these studies has specifically considered the attribution issue, they often draw some attribution conclusions, for which there is little justification.”

These Statements Were Replaced by Lead Author Ben Santer with:

“There is evidence of an emerging pattern of climate response to forcing by greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols … from the geographical, seasonal and vertical patterns of temperature change … These results point toward a human influence on global climate.”

“The body of statistical evidence in chapter 8, when examined in the context of our physical understanding of the climate system, now points to a discernible human influence on the global climate.”
Santer single-handedly reversed the ‘climate science’ of the whole IPCC report
and with it the global warming political process! The ‘discernible human influence’ supposedly revealed by the IPCC has been cited thousands of times since in media around the world, and has been the ‘stopper’ in millions of debates among nonscientists.

Avery and Singer 2006

Since then, we've had the super El Nino of 1998, and falling temperatures ever since.  In other words, there is STILL no evidence of a human CO2 component.  Some recent studies are suggesting that any warming effect of CO2 is completely regulated and overwhelmed by convective processes (clouds).  There is a reason clouds don't receive much attention in climate models.  Everyone already knows the answer and the answer kills the entire GHG theory, and the gravy train.  Nobody wants a bunch of unemployed climate scientists in the soup line.

Not True

What Smith states here is simply not the case and tempertures are indeed on the rise .Dr. Richard Mueller and his team have confirmed that in their own research study. Arctic Ice Melt and other extreme weather events indicate climate change based on our greenhouse emissions. Dr Hansen has recently published a book "Storms of My Grandchildren" explaining in detail the science and causes.It does not make sense to heed our nation's top climate science and his team any longer.

What part is not true? 

What part is not true?  Temperatures are indeed following the same trend since the end of the LIA.  Same rate of rise (depending on time frame), but if anything, deceleration, not acceleration.  There just doesn't seem to be any sensitivity to CO2 at all.

I agree it does not make sense to heed our nation's top climate science.  They were off-track the whole time, which is why the entire AGW facade is crumbling.

Boy, you just don't get it!

Off track the whole time? Hmmm, Suppose Dr Richard Mueller and his team is wrong also. Suppose the ice is melting because temperatures are decreasing. Suppose the climate is stable and the extreme weather is just normal. Suppose specie movement to new zones is just normal. Suppose the ocean is warming and becoming more acidic because it's just natural. Need I go on? Ok, Mr Smith nothing is true, hope that makes you feel ok.

There is a contradiction,

There is a contradiction, here, that troubles me, and it is this:  They want government and citizens to act politically on the science, but the scientists say that they must not themselves act poltically and should keep their role as scientists separate from their role as citizens.  It is inconsistent and doesn't make sense.

These sicentists are the most informed CITIZENS we have.  Should I not use the special knowledge that I developed as an educator, for example, to inform my view as a citizen of what educational policy should be?  Should I keep my role as a creative artist separate from my role as citizen, and NOT use my creativity for the sake of democracy?

We hear all the time that democracy needs an educated citizenry; why should all that climate scientists have learned be separated from their role as citizens?  Their knowledge is vital to the well-being and thriving of the citizens of the world.  How can they expect us to embrace what they know and create policy from it if they don't do the same, and bring their scienctific knowledge TO their democratic role as citizens?

OF COURSE they should speak out.  All they are doing when they are telling us about the science is speaking truth to power, and speaking truth to power is what every citizen in a democracy has the political responsibility to do.

Listen to them: they understand.

There is no contradiction. Of course what they say and how they act as citizens is informed by what they know as scientists. How could it not be? However, as scientists, they are taught to dig out facts, weigh-up evidence and not let their emotions as human beings cloud their judgement.

This clear division should be straightforward for most scientists and can be witnessed any day in any scientific institution, where you will find people of different religious and political backgrounds working beside one another talking the language of science. That's not to say they never have any heated political discussions at lunch time over a coffee, but it's compartmentalised.

The key point from an onlooker's perspective is that when a concerned citizen who has a background in a relevant science speaks, their opinion is that much more important. This is because they have an understanding of the issues which goes far beyond what can be read in the popular press and on blogs. Therefore they should not be ignored. If they don't know what they're talking about, then who does?    

methane is worse than carbon dioxide

According to an article from Organic Consumers Association, factory farming has a greater effect on climate change than fossil fuels:


http://www.organicconsumers.org/articles/article_24530.cfm


So I was surprised that factory farming was not mentioned in the present article.

Methane from Animals is a CC Red Herring

Two reasons that methane from animals is a climate change red herring:

1. Climate change is fundamentally caused by the movement of carbon from the lithosphere (fossil fuels) to the atmosphere for the purpose of energy production.  Animals are just moving carbon around in the biosphere.

2. Although the GHG power of methane is much stronger than CO2, the longevity of methane is much shorter.  Methane only lasts about 10 years before it is removed from the atmoshpere or converted to water and CO2.  CO2 lastss for at least 100 years before it moves into the oceans.

The real threat from methane is accelerated production of methane from the melting of permafrost.  It will provide a shock to the climate right in the spot where climate is already changing the fastest, the Arctic.

 

The problem should be addressed using science.

What is baffling is why we are not approaching the problem based on science.

Between 80 and 90 percent of the heat of global warming has gone into warming the surface of the oceans.
 
Nature’s response to warming oceans is the hurricane. 
 
The same energy can be harnessed with 1 meter in diameter, inverted, ammonia, hurricanes to energize the planet, eliminate carbon emissions, increase carbon dioxide absorption (cooler water absorbs more CO2), cool the oceans and prevent potential extinction events due to clathrate breakdown or thermal runaway caused by warming amplification from increased atmospheric moisture. 
 
There is no better way to manage the climate problem than by producing all of the renewable energy we will ever need.

Cool discussion, and I'm

Cool discussion, and I'm pleased to see that no one took up their favorite politician as a 'proof' of the 'climate scam' :)

As for the rest I've found Hansen to be right so much more often than being wrong. And, nota bene, being so decades before the rest of the guys & gals that dare to extrapolate.

It doesn't hurt to listen to him, well, yeah, it does, doesn't it? :) As it will cost, but you got to realize that it will cost us all, not only Americans.

You somehow turned GW into a 'political game' which was a severely stupid thing to do. There are only a few countries outside America, most of them dictatorships btw, that believe that global warming is primary a political issue.

Would be nice if it was though, but it isn't..

And it will hurt your wallet to do something, that's a truth. But not doing anything and just continue as before will cost your hide, and worse.

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