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Texas Heat Wave Caused by Global Warming, NASA's Hansen Says

Temperature data shows the Texas heat wave wouldn't have occurred without warming, Hansen claims. Others aren't ready to draw such a definitive conclusion.

Jan 31, 2012
Two ranchers walk across parched dried soil in Culberson County, Texas.

For three months last summer, temperatures in Texas soared higher than at any time in recorded history, and the state is still coping with the most expensive drought in its history. But can the 2011 Texas heat wave be attributed to global warming?

Most scientists are careful not to link specific weather events to climate change trends, but NASA's James Hansen and two colleagues from the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Columbia University have taken that plunge. They've gathered data they say shows that the 2011 Texas and Oklahoma heat wave—as well as a deadly Moscow heat in 2010—were "a consequence of global warming because their likelihood was negligible prior to the recent rapid global warming." 

Their conclusions are based on more than 50 years of temperature data, Hansen told InsideClimate News. By comparing the recent shift toward extreme high summer temperatures with that data, he said his group was able to demonstrate that the record-breaking 2011 Texas heat wave wouldn't have occurred without global warming. This data also provides a broader context for the summer of 2011, which across the United States was the second warmest on record, with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Extremes Index twice the historical average.

Making a connection between the Texas heat wave and climate change could have profound practical and policy implications because, as Hansen and his colleagues write, the global warming trend "has been attributed with a high degree of confidence to human-made greenhouse gases."

Hansen has posted a draft of the new study, Perceptions of Climate Change: The New Climate Dice, on his website and is circulating it to colleagues for comment, a practice he has followed with other research. Meanwhile, NASA's Goddard Institute has posted to the institution's website the scientists' analysis of 2011 temperature data—an analysis that Hansen and his colleagues also used in the new paper.

Hansen, who directs the Goddard Institute, has become a target for climate change skeptics who say his activism undermines his science. But his scientific standing is so solid that his research continues to be published in respected scientific journals, including Environmental Science & Technology, Atmospheric Chemistry & Physics and the Review of Geophysics.

"Our paper deals with the frequency of hot seasons, mainly hot summers, because that is the most important season," Hansen said. "The times and places with hot summers tend to be where the weather is dominated ... by high pressure, so there is high correspondence between the [extremely hot outliers or extreme] heat waves and drought conditions." They also point out that summer, "when most biological productivity occurs, is the most important season for humanity and thus the season when climate change may have its biggest impact."

The Texas drought is now the most expensive on record, having caused more than $5 billion in damages. The latest outlook from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicts that the drought will persist across much of Texas at least through end of April 2012.

Other climate scientists say that while the data Hansen and his colleagues have gathered is solid, they're not yet ready to draw such a definitive conclusion.

Comments

Concerns

Hansen has systematially altered surface temperature by lowering GISS recorded data prior to 2000 especially the warming from 1920 to 1950. He then chooses to use only data from the past 50 years for his analysis, which just happens to be 1960 when temperatures were well below normal. It is highly unlikely that if Hansen had used unadjusted temperature data from the last 100 years, that he would get the same results. In fact I know so because 30+ climate scientists from The Royal Society did a retrospective analysis of climate for a 128 year period and found no attribution between extreme weather and humans. Unless you cherry pick the start time of the analysis there is no long term attribution. There was no signal beyond white noise in the Royal Society data. I trust a 128 year analysis over a cherry picked 50 year analysis.


I also have a problem with Hansen having absolute power with 0 accountability over the models and temp data. There is no independent watchdog agency that is checking his model's accuracy (actually lack of accuracy) and he has been allowed to adjust the temp data to fit his model when temperatures are inconvenient to his model.


Can you imagine the government letting you be your own auditor for your tax return if there is a problem? That is the conflict of interest they allow Hansen to enjoy. Why doesn't our governent have the same level of scrutiny and accountability for their employees as they have for the rest of us? I do not trust the process and I do trust the man.

More concern using data

Here is the NCDC data for 116 years of annual temperatures in Texas and as you can see the long term trend is 0 degrees of temperature rise. You can also see why Hansen avoided using temperatures in his analysis prior to his carefully cherry picked date of 1960.


http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/time-series/index.php?parameter=tmp&month=12&year=2011&filter=12&state=41&div=0


Is there any wonder why surveys show that Americans are losing trust in climate scientists? Is it any wonder that the scientists are circling their wagons and incorportaing a strategy of painting Americans as being science illeterates, fighting scientific transparency by blocking FOIA requests and attacking rather than engaging sceptical climate scientists? Einstein, Feynman, Popper and others must be rolling over in their graves.

Now who is cherrypicking ?

Your link is for a 12 month average, whereas Hansen's paper specifically looks at the hot months. Also he is not predicting a smooth annual (or any) increase over this period in a specific location, merely a rigourous thorough statistical treatment of the likelyhood of extreme events like the 2011 summer in Texas. It is plain common sense that given global rises this century its going to be more likely to have more extreme highs.

And no, there is no wonder why the public are loosing trust , its the relentless propoganda of the mainstream media. Eg the recent op ed by 16 'scientists' in WSJ. http://www.skepticalscience.com/examining-the-latest-climate-denialist-p... and
http://www.desmogblog.com/monckton-pitches-fox-news-australia-idea-minin...

I see enourmous courtesy by scientists to opponents who engage the scientific method. I see little respect for the riff raff of the denialosphere who lacking solid clear peer reviewed arguments have to step outside into the biased media and wild west of the 'blogshere'.

But of course , it must be a conspiracy of the 97% of active publishing climate scientists who agree in AGW against the 1% who dont (2% are not sure).

Hansen is still the one

Hansen is still the one cherry picking. Here is the 116 year Texas trend for June = +.3 degF/century:  http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/time-series/index.php?parameter=tmp&month=6&year=2011&filter=12&state=41&div=0


July = +.4 degF/century:  http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/time-series/index.php?parameter=tmp&month=6&year=2011&filter=1&state=41&div=0


August = -.2 degF/century:  http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/time-series/index.php?parameter=tmp&month=7&year=2011&filter=1&state=41&div=0


As you can see my original point that Hansen used a start date when temperatures were cooler is still valid in the single month data for warm months too.


Thank you for your links to the activist/biased web sites, but I will continue to base my scientific views on my own research and sources like the Royal Meteorological Society which found no human attribution in weather events over the last 138 years (correction from earlier post) of data rather than your bisaed sources or Hansen's cherry picked 50 year study.


I will also have to disagree that the scientists have exhibited "enourmous courtesy". There are numerous examples provided their emails that evidence their attempts to avoid FOIA requests, cherry pick data and plot to discredit/destroy other scientists/laypeople that disagree with them and/or who find problems with their results.


As for the 97% agreeing with AGW, I am familiar with that survey and I would also agree with the question on AGW as it is phrased.

Correcetion on single month summer trend in Texas

I inadvertently did 12 month trend instead of single month tren for June my above post and have labels wrong. Here is the corrected that still supports my view.


June = +.3 degF/century: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/time-series/index.php?parameter=tmp&month=6&year=2011&filter=1&state=41&div=0


July = +.4 degF/century: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/time-series/index.php?parameter=tmp&month=7&year=2011&filter=1&state=41&div=0


August = -.2 degF/century: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/time-series/index.php?parameter=tmp&month=8&year=2011&filter=1&state=41&div=0

Court-li-ness

rigourous?  loosing?  propoganda? likelyhood?  its (rather than it's)? 


You are not even literate.

Concern from Anonymous

Anonymous expresses concern about a lack of independent watchdog to check the models and temperature records.  What about the Berkely Earth Surfaces Temperature project, by Richard Muller?  Muller's work was NOT funded by any government agency.  In fact, the Chas. and David Koch Foundation contributed greatly to it.  His work checked the temperature record with specific concerns for bias, Urban Heat Island effect, etc., and found no discrepancies between his privately funded research, and that of the government.  BEST also found the infamous "Hockey Stick" graph to be solid too.  With regard to Texas temperature rise, remember that when one looks at global warming temperatures, one must look at the whole GLOBAL picture of temperature deviations.  Texas is big, but not global.  In fact, the U.S. temperature record only accounts for about 1.6% of all the temperatures on earth.  WRT whether or not specific events can be tied to AGW, I suppose peer review will clarify that issue.


 

Berkeley Analysis

Judith Curry ,who participated on this study with Muller, disagrees with Muller's conclusions. In addition, this work has not been peer reviewed.

BEST Concers

"BEST also found the infamous "Hockey Stick" graph to be solid too."


This is news to me as Muller is a physicist not a dendro specialist. How would BEST know if tree proxies selected/rejected by Mike Mann are valid? Either I misunderstand you or you are attributing more to the best data than it supports. You might want to look into tree experts such as Ed Cook's criticisms and Keith Briffa's concerns about exaggeration regarding tree selection and the small number of trees used in constructing Mann's hockey stick. There are dozens of other tree, stalagmite, sea bed, sea shell, etc. proxies that find different results than Mann's hockey stick.


I understand your global vs. local climate point but Hansen in this paper is looking at temperature data associated with an isolated, extremely short term (weeks) warming event that is specific to Texas. It is his intention to limit the data considered for this study to Texas.

Hansen's scientific integrity

"But his scientific standing is so solid that his research continues to be published in respected scientific journals,"

His being published in those journals means nothing when the peer-review is by cronies and friends of his Team. His science is not reputable as it can be shown that he cherry-picks the data to show what he wants, rather than being a man and examining ALL of the data. The man has no integrity and, if they retracked doctoral awards, his would be the first to go. His activism includes a huge amount of misinformation and outright lies. In my book, that cancels his veracity in everything as he is lying to the public and cobbling up the science.

Solid reputations of Climate Scientist......

I tend to agree.  I also found the investigation into the leaked emails rather odd.  It was mostly conducted by the peers of these scientist at their own universities......


Aren't these univerisities receiving millions in grant money to study climate change?  So don't they have a vested interest in seeing climate-gate "go away".....

Global Warming.... proof and non-proof....

I have always found it odd that a week of hot weather is proof of global warming, but a week of cold weather isn't.


If we have an unusually large snow storm or a period of cold weather, we are told that no one weather event is proof that global warming is not happening.  But if we have a hurricane or a week of warm weather, we are told "this is proof global warming is real....."


Anyone else find that odd?  It would seem the burden of proof to prove global warming is much less the burden of proof to disprove it!

Nice to just keep pretending!

Nice to just keep pretending! Hoping that the earth is not warming due to antropogenic (human) cause is tantamount to believing the sun goes around the earth!! 

I am an environmental

I am an environmental engineer and I tell you climate change is 100% real and happening and I dont make a dime saying it. I dont understand why its such a big deal to the people who dont "believe" in it. Like Climate scientist are gonna come snatch there kids. Who cares if people want to have cleaner vehicles, more efficient homes, and a broader consumption of energy. You may say they are only doing those things out of fear, but who cares cause its still the right thing to do! Id rather Canada not be ripping apart its ancient forests for fuel, and if I have to buy a prius to know I contribute less to that cycle then WHATS THE BIG DEAL?

Earths Rotation and the Sun contribute a lot to weather changes globaly, but I still think its WRONG to destroy the gulf coast to pump fuel from the bottom of the ocean. And dont tell me that its not destroyed, Ive been there many times, that place is an ecological nightmare.

Now how do you argue that destroying neigborhoods and life systems is moral or ethical or ok or fun or cool or whatever pervers lack of respect you have for the planet.

If you EAT, BREATHE, or DRINK and you dont care about the environment, your plain and simply Stupid.

Not only Texas infact the

Not only Texas infact the entire world is suffering form global warming.
MMA News

Follow the money

I appreciate all of your comments and posts.  This is a rather disturbing concern for most of us who don't know who to believe.  I do understand one thing that none of you have mentioned.  Who made the earth and solar system.  If you believe GOD made it, as I do, then none of this is a concern because it won't be from man that the earth is destroyed but from GOD.  To think that man could cause global warming is crazy.  However, I do believe that all of us should be good stewards of the earth and take care of it as best that we can.  

 

You must also remember this.  Global warming is not what is at stake here.  Always, with everything - Follow the money.  That is what all this is about.  Gore, doesn't care about the environment or global warming.  He wants to make money and all his croonies also.  Follow the money and you will find your answers.

Global Warming -- what would you take as proof?

If we can't trust climate scientists, who should we trust?

Oil companies? Radio talk show hosts?

Not that any and all climate scientists are correct in any and all contentions. That would be absurd. However, to opt for no action to limit greenhouse gas emissions because of some residual uncertainty is nuts.

To presume bad faith on the part of scientists--who are among the most objective and devoted to truth of any professions--is self-defeating. 

We have to trust the vast majority of scientists in the involved disciplines.

Issues with posts

Anonymous,


If you feel so confident that you want to deny the work of a respected scientist who has worked for respected groups under both administrations, then have the courage to have a name or at least initials.....anonymity stinks....

Last night I heard a show on

Last night I heard a show on the Progressive Radio Network about environmental tipping points. I had heard of some of them but others just blew my mind, like declining ocean salinity and the shrinking of the Sahara. I thought shrinking deserts would be a good thing but it just shows how everything on the planet is connected. Here's the link http://www.progressiveradionetwork.com/progressive-commentary-hour/2012/...

Ah well :)

I found it quite interesting. And Hansen et all are brave to dare present it, as we can see from the responses, educated or not. I hope it will do something for those of you wondering whom to trust there in America.

 

Scientists, or your ever so, Local Politican :)

 

Also, beware of 'anonymous' ahh, 'people' sprouting 'facts' ::))

We can all do that, doesn't impress me at all.

If Global warming continues

If Global warming continues in such way, one day this planet will be impossible to live for human being, Texas movers organized some awareness campaigns last year about this issue and I think we should move forward to help them.

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